Types of Bets ðŸ§
Bets are structured investments in achieving specific outcomes. They guide teams in prioritising opportunities while navigating uncertainty. This section explores John Cutler’s perspective on categorising bets and aligning them with discovery and delivery efforts.
📖 Acknowledgement: The concepts in this section are inspired by John Cutler’s work on product strategy, bets, and roadmapping. For more, visit John Cutler’s blog.
Understanding the Types of Bets
Bets can be classified into categories based on their focus and impact:
1. Solution Bets
Solution bets revolve around implementing specific features or solutions to address validated customer problems. They typically follow detailed discovery work and hypothesis testing.
Example:
- Adding a self-service knowledge base for users after identifying high support ticket volumes.
Purpose:
- Accelerate delivery and improve outcomes for well-understood problems.
2. Opportunity Bets
These bets focus on tackling high-level opportunities or challenges where the path forward isn’t fully defined. They involve iterative discovery and refinement.
Example:
- Exploring how to reduce onboarding friction for new users without pre-defined solutions.
Purpose:
- Address ambiguous challenges through experimentation and validation.
3. Exploration Bets
Exploration bets target new, high-risk areas with the potential for transformative value. They may involve entering uncharted territory or addressing emerging trends.
Example:
- Investigating the viability of AI-powered features to enhance customer workflows.
Purpose:
- Identify groundbreaking opportunities or disruptive innovations.
How Bets Evolve Through Discovery
Each type of bet transitions through stages of discovery and validation. Using frameworks like the Opportunity Solution Tree, teams can refine their focus as they test assumptions, validate hypotheses, and align efforts.
The Role of Continuous Discovery
- Solution Bets: Build upon validated assumptions and require detailed user feedback.
- Opportunity Bets: Focus on identifying the right problem before diving into solutions.
- Exploration Bets: Demand rapid iteration and conceptual validation.
💡 Pro Tip: Start with exploration, refine through discovery, and narrow down into actionable solution bets.
Balancing the Portfolio of Bets
An effective product strategy involves balancing these bet types to ensure short-term wins and long-term growth. Use multi-resolution planning to evaluate bets across different horizons (e.g., quarterly, annual).
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Overcommitting to Solutions: Jumping into implementation without sufficient discovery.
- Neglecting Exploration: Avoiding high-risk bets that could unlock new opportunities.
- Focusing Only on Incremental Gains: Ignoring transformative opportunities in favour of quick wins.
Conclusion
Understanding and categorising bets helps teams manage uncertainty, prioritise effectively, and align efforts with strategic goals. By balancing solution, opportunity, and exploration bets, you can drive both immediate impact and long-term growth.